2012 Wager: Obama Breaks 400 in Electoral College
November 9, 2008 by elcap
To anyone who thinks this election means the end is near: I’m happy to make a bet that Obama will win re-election with over 400 electoral votes.
There’s several reasons for this. First, I’m confident that Obama will do at least a decent job (here’s my ten reasons to happy he won). Second, presidents tend to do well in re-election bids. Clinton got 379 in 1996, Reagan gobbled up 525 in 1984, Johnson won 486 in 1964, Eisenhower piled up 457 in 1956 and FDR demolished poor Alf Landon 523 to 8 in 1936.
But perhaps most telling is the Republican Party’s incompetence. I don’t think that they’ll have a viable candidate to run. The latest Rasmussen Poll has a whopping 64% of Republicans favoring Sarah Palin in 2012. Huckabee is a distant second with 12%. Both of these candidates are steeped in the religious anti-science wing of the party. Should the Republicans move further in the Palin direction — and farther from the Jeff Flake (libertarian) wing — then I welcome their implosion.
In fact, if Sarah Palin wins the Republican nod, I’d be willing to bet that she comes closer to Walter Mondale (13 electoral votes) and Alf Landen (8) than to victory.
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[...] 2012 Wager: Obama Breaks 400 in Electoral College I’m happy to bet that Obama will win re-election with over 400 electoral votes. There’s several reasons for this. First, I’m confident that Obama will do at least a decent job (here’s my ten reasons to happy he won). Second, presidents tend to do well in re-election bids. Clinton got 379 [...] [...]
I hope Obama gets re-elected. However, there’s a strong chance that when voters head to the polls in 2012, they likely will still think the economy is awful. If history is any guide at all, voters may still be terribly cranky about the economy when they cast their ballots on Nov. 6, 2012.
Obama’s election is often compared to that of Ronald Reagan’s in 1980. Both were voted in to fix an ailing economy. But the 1982 recession took a huge chunk out of the Gipper’s popularity. He had just a 35 percent job approval rating at the start of 1983, just two months after Republicans lost 27 seats in the House in the midterm elections. But Reagan’s presidency was saved by an amazing economic rebound. The economy surged at a 4.5 percent pace in 1983 and at a mind-blowing 7.2 percent clip in 1984 as unemployment dropped from a high of 10.8 percent in December 1982 to 7.2 percent in November 1984.
oo veri thanks for you..!